NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
$306,674 Vol.
$306,674 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$306,674 Vol.
$306,674 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,674Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,674Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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