NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring confirm no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026, supporting the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Meter-scale impactors detected this year, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, released well below 1 kt upon atmospheric entry, consistent with the small size and low energy of recent catalogued events. Historical bolide records from NASA JPL indicate such 5 kt thresholds occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet refined orbits and Sentry risk assessments show zero qualifying candidates remain for the final quarter. Traders weigh this absence of precursors against the Poisson-distributed base rate, with upcoming CNEOS fireball updates serving as the key resolution trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
24% chance
$314,169 Vol.
$314,169 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
Oui
24% chance
$314,169 Vol.
$314,169 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring confirm no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026, supporting the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Meter-scale impactors detected this year, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, released well below 1 kt upon atmospheric entry, consistent with the small size and low energy of recent catalogued events. Historical bolide records from NASA JPL indicate such 5 kt thresholds occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet refined orbits and Sentry risk assessments show zero qualifying candidates remain for the final quarter. Traders weigh this absence of precursors against the Poisson-distributed base rate, with upcoming CNEOS fireball updates serving as the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,169Date de fin
1 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring confirm no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026, supporting the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Meter-scale impactors detected this year, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, released well below 1 kt upon atmospheric entry, consistent with the small size and low energy of recent catalogued events. Historical bolide records from NASA JPL indicate such 5 kt thresholds occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet refined orbits and Sentry risk assessments show zero qualifying candidates remain for the final quarter. Traders weigh this absence of precursors against the Poisson-distributed base rate, with upcoming CNEOS fireball updates serving as the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070be91...NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring confirm no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst through December 2026, supporting the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Meter-scale impactors detected this year, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, released well below 1 kt upon atmospheric entry, consistent with the small size and low energy of recent catalogued events. Historical bolide records from NASA JPL indicate such 5 kt thresholds occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, yet refined orbits and Sentry risk assessments show zero qualifying candidates remain for the final quarter. Traders weigh this absence of precursors against the Poisson-distributed base rate, with upcoming CNEOS fireball updates serving as the key resolution trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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