No catalogued near-Earth objects currently pose a collision risk capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate objects several meters across, capable of releasing roughly 5 kt in the upper atmosphere, strike on decadal rather than strictly annual timescales, with recent events remaining below this threshold. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small NEO population, yet no model runs or observations have flagged elevated 2026 odds. Trader consensus favoring “No” reflects this absence of known impactors and the statistical baseline, while acknowledging that undetected small bodies could still appear before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
$306,667 Vol.
$306,667 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$306,667 Vol.
$306,667 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No catalogued near-Earth objects currently pose a collision risk capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate objects several meters across, capable of releasing roughly 5 kt in the upper atmosphere, strike on decadal rather than strictly annual timescales, with recent events remaining below this threshold. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small NEO population, yet no model runs or observations have flagged elevated 2026 odds. Trader consensus favoring “No” reflects this absence of known impactors and the statistical baseline, while acknowledging that undetected small bodies could still appear before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,667Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No catalogued near-Earth objects currently pose a collision risk capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate objects several meters across, capable of releasing roughly 5 kt in the upper atmosphere, strike on decadal rather than strictly annual timescales, with recent events remaining below this threshold. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small NEO population, yet no model runs or observations have flagged elevated 2026 odds. Trader consensus favoring “No” reflects this absence of known impactors and the statistical baseline, while acknowledging that undetected small bodies could still appear before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,667Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No catalogued near-Earth objects currently pose a collision risk capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate objects several meters across, capable of releasing roughly 5 kt in the upper atmosphere, strike on decadal rather than strictly annual timescales, with recent events remaining below this threshold. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small NEO population, yet no model runs or observations have flagged elevated 2026 odds. Trader consensus favoring “No” reflects this absence of known impactors and the statistical baseline, while acknowledging that undetected small bodies could still appear before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes