**Elevated preliminary counts from active spring and summer outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, underpin trader consensus for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data through early September show roughly 1,419 preliminary reports—well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200—with Illinois and surrounding states posting record or near-record activity through July amid favorable instability and shear patterns. Confirmed totals have already reached over 1,200 in some tallies, leaving limited room for a sub-1,250 finish even after accounting for typical downward revisions from preliminary reports. A quiet remaining fall and winter or unusually high non-tornado misreports could theoretically cap the year lower, yet current trends and climatological norms make such outcomes improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.0%
1200–1249 3.4%
1100–1149 3.2%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9 janv. 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
3%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.0%
1200–1249 3.4%
1100–1149 3.2%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9 janv. 2027
<950
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,289 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,368 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,192 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 Vol.
3%
1250+
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from active spring and summer outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, underpin trader consensus for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data through early September show roughly 1,419 preliminary reports—well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200—with Illinois and surrounding states posting record or near-record activity through July amid favorable instability and shear patterns. Confirmed totals have already reached over 1,200 in some tallies, leaving limited room for a sub-1,250 finish even after accounting for typical downward revisions from preliminary reports. A quiet remaining fall and winter or unusually high non-tornado misreports could theoretically cap the year lower, yet current trends and climatological norms make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$83,038Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts from active spring and summer outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, underpin trader consensus for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data through early September show roughly 1,419 preliminary reports—well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200—with Illinois and surrounding states posting record or near-record activity through July amid favorable instability and shear patterns. Confirmed totals have already reached over 1,200 in some tallies, leaving limited room for a sub-1,250 finish even after accounting for typical downward revisions from preliminary reports. A quiet remaining fall and winter or unusually high non-tornado misreports could theoretically cap the year lower, yet current trends and climatological norms make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$83,038Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated preliminary counts from active spring and summer outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, underpin trader consensus for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data through early September show roughly 1,419 preliminary reports—well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200—with Illinois and surrounding states posting record or near-record activity through July amid favorable instability and shear patterns. Confirmed totals have already reached over 1,200 in some tallies, leaving limited room for a sub-1,250 finish even after accounting for typical downward revisions from preliminary reports. A quiet remaining fall and winter or unusually high non-tornado misreports could theoretically cap the year lower, yet current trends and climatological norms make such outcomes improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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