USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuand commencera l'épisode 53 du Kīlauea ?
Quand commencera l'épisode 53 du Kīlauea ?
11-12 août 37%
9-10 août 35%
13 août ou plus tard 21%
8 août ou plus tôt 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
8 août ou plus tôt
5%
9-10 août
35%
11-12 août
26%
13 août ou plus tard
21%
11-12 août 37%
9-10 août 35%
13 août ou plus tard 21%
8 août ou plus tôt 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
8 août ou plus tôt
$231 Vol.
5%
9-10 août
$138 Vol.
35%
11-12 août
$87 Vol.
26%
13 août ou plus tard
$679 Vol.
21%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,135Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$1,135Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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