Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity, including the January 2026 flank eruption, June–July effusive phases, and August 2026 episodes of Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash emissions from Voragine and Northeast craters, has produced measurable lava volumes and flight disruptions but no confirmed VEI 2+ events per INGV and Global Volcanism Program records. This keeps the market near even at 50.5% for "No" through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether ongoing magma ascent, fluctuating tremor, and SO2 emissions will drive a higher-explosivity paroxysm versus continued mild effusive or intra-crater behavior typical of Etna's recent cycles. Traders watch for INGV seismic, tilt, and gas-flux updates plus any new vent openings or sustained plumes that could meet VEI 2 criteria before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
0% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity, including the January 2026 flank eruption, June–July effusive phases, and August 2026 episodes of Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash emissions from Voragine and Northeast craters, has produced measurable lava volumes and flight disruptions but no confirmed VEI 2+ events per INGV and Global Volcanism Program records. This keeps the market near even at 50.5% for "No" through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether ongoing magma ascent, fluctuating tremor, and SO2 emissions will drive a higher-explosivity paroxysm versus continued mild effusive or intra-crater behavior typical of Etna's recent cycles. Traders watch for INGV seismic, tilt, and gas-flux updates plus any new vent openings or sustained plumes that could meet VEI 2 criteria before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Marché ouvert : Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity, including the January 2026 flank eruption, June–July effusive phases, and August 2026 episodes of Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash emissions from Voragine and Northeast craters, has produced measurable lava volumes and flight disruptions but no confirmed VEI 2+ events per INGV and Global Volcanism Program records. This keeps the market near even at 50.5% for "No" through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether ongoing magma ascent, fluctuating tremor, and SO2 emissions will drive a higher-explosivity paroxysm versus continued mild effusive or intra-crater behavior typical of Etna's recent cycles. Traders watch for INGV seismic, tilt, and gas-flux updates plus any new vent openings or sustained plumes that could meet VEI 2 criteria before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity, including the January 2026 flank eruption, June–July effusive phases, and August 2026 episodes of Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash emissions from Voragine and Northeast craters, has produced measurable lava volumes and flight disruptions but no confirmed VEI 2+ events per INGV and Global Volcanism Program records. This keeps the market near even at 50.5% for "No" through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether ongoing magma ascent, fluctuating tremor, and SO2 emissions will drive a higher-explosivity paroxysm versus continued mild effusive or intra-crater behavior typical of Etna's recent cycles. Traders watch for INGV seismic, tilt, and gas-flux updates plus any new vent openings or sustained plumes that could meet VEI 2 criteria before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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