Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift reusable launch vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a December 31 flight. A January 2026 first-stage carbon composite tank rupture during hydrostatic testing shifted the schedule from an earlier target to no earlier than Q4, with the company now aligning production toward pad delivery rather than liftoff. Remaining milestones—including Archimedes engine hot fires, stage static fire tests, avionics integration, and regulatory approvals at Launch Complex 3—typically require months of qualification that have slipped before. While unexpected acceleration in testing or early regulatory clearance could enable a late-year attempt, historical patterns and recent executive commentary point to a probable 2027 first flight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour9% chance
$11,568 Vol.
$11,568 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
9% chance
$11,568 Vol.
$11,568 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift reusable launch vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a December 31 flight. A January 2026 first-stage carbon composite tank rupture during hydrostatic testing shifted the schedule from an earlier target to no earlier than Q4, with the company now aligning production toward pad delivery rather than liftoff. Remaining milestones—including Archimedes engine hot fires, stage static fire tests, avionics integration, and regulatory approvals at Launch Complex 3—typically require months of qualification that have slipped before. While unexpected acceleration in testing or early regulatory clearance could enable a late-year attempt, historical patterns and recent executive commentary point to a probable 2027 first flight.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$11,568Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift reusable launch vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a December 31 flight. A January 2026 first-stage carbon composite tank rupture during hydrostatic testing shifted the schedule from an earlier target to no earlier than Q4, with the company now aligning production toward pad delivery rather than liftoff. Remaining milestones—including Archimedes engine hot fires, stage static fire tests, avionics integration, and regulatory approvals at Launch Complex 3—typically require months of qualification that have slipped before. While unexpected acceleration in testing or early regulatory clearance could enable a late-year attempt, historical patterns and recent executive commentary point to a probable 2027 first flight.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
Volume
$11,568Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift reusable launch vehicle faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, driving the 91.5% market-implied odds against a December 31 flight. A January 2026 first-stage carbon composite tank rupture during hydrostatic testing shifted the schedule from an earlier target to no earlier than Q4, with the company now aligning production toward pad delivery rather than liftoff. Remaining milestones—including Archimedes engine hot fires, stage static fire tests, avionics integration, and regulatory approvals at Launch Complex 3—typically require months of qualification that have slipped before. While unexpected acceleration in testing or early regulatory clearance could enable a late-year attempt, historical patterns and recent executive commentary point to a probable 2027 first flight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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