A major May 28, 2026 explosion during an integrated hotfire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and other ground support hardware for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, though propellant tanks survived. The company traced the anomaly to a BE-4 main oxygen valve, began pad reconstruction with a new horizontal/vertical hybrid mating process using cranes, and committed to returning to flight before year-end. Industry observers note the timeline remains aggressive given historical precedents for pad rebuilds and the limited months remaining after ongoing investigations and hardware fixes. These setbacks have driven trader consensus toward a low probability of any 2026 orbital launch despite official statements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
15% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
15% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A major May 28, 2026 explosion during an integrated hotfire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and other ground support hardware for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, though propellant tanks survived. The company traced the anomaly to a BE-4 main oxygen valve, began pad reconstruction with a new horizontal/vertical hybrid mating process using cranes, and committed to returning to flight before year-end. Industry observers note the timeline remains aggressive given historical precedents for pad rebuilds and the limited months remaining after ongoing investigations and hardware fixes. These setbacks have driven trader consensus toward a low probability of any 2026 orbital launch despite official statements.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,417Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A major May 28, 2026 explosion during an integrated hotfire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and other ground support hardware for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, though propellant tanks survived. The company traced the anomaly to a BE-4 main oxygen valve, began pad reconstruction with a new horizontal/vertical hybrid mating process using cranes, and committed to returning to flight before year-end. Industry observers note the timeline remains aggressive given historical precedents for pad rebuilds and the limited months remaining after ongoing investigations and hardware fixes. These setbacks have driven trader consensus toward a low probability of any 2026 orbital launch despite official statements.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$1,417Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...A major May 28, 2026 explosion during an integrated hotfire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the lightning tower, transporter-erector, and other ground support hardware for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, though propellant tanks survived. The company traced the anomaly to a BE-4 main oxygen valve, began pad reconstruction with a new horizontal/vertical hybrid mating process using cranes, and committed to returning to flight before year-end. Industry observers note the timeline remains aggressive given historical precedents for pad rebuilds and the limited months remaining after ongoing investigations and hardware fixes. These setbacks have driven trader consensus toward a low probability of any 2026 orbital launch despite official statements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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