Traders assign a 93% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale. USGS historical data show M9+ quakes occur roughly once every 25–50 years globally, with the most recent in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan. In the remaining months of 2026, no subduction zone activity has approached the energy release needed for a great earthquake, and 2026’s strongest event reached only M7.8. Seismic catalogs confirm steady background rates without recent clustering that would elevate short-term odds. While an unanticipated rupture on a high-strain subduction segment remains theoretically possible, the brief time window and absence of precursors support the market’s strong consensus against occurrence.