**Summer timing drives the strong market consensus for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000 in Week 31 (early August 2026).** CDC FluView surveillance through Week 30 ending August 1 shows minimal national activity, with clinical lab positivity at or below 0.6% and most states reporting low or no circulation. Historical patterns confirm influenza transmission drops sharply outside the October–May season, producing weekly FluSurv-NET rates near zero during summer months. Recent model runs and virologic data reinforce that no significant uptick is expected before the next season begins in Week 40. Traders price the >0.1 outcome at just 43.5% implied probability, reflecting these established seasonal dynamics and the absence of any anomalous early signals in official monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTaux d'hospitalisation pour grippe Semaine 31, 2026 ?
Taux d'hospitalisation pour grippe Semaine 31, 2026 ?
<0,1 84%
0,1 11%
>0,1 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
<0,1
84%
0,1
11%
>0,1
8%
<0,1 84%
0,1 11%
>0,1 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 août 2026
<0,1
$100 Vol.
84%
0,1
$45 Vol.
11%
>0,1
$173 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Summer timing drives the strong market consensus for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000 in Week 31 (early August 2026).** CDC FluView surveillance through Week 30 ending August 1 shows minimal national activity, with clinical lab positivity at or below 0.6% and most states reporting low or no circulation. Historical patterns confirm influenza transmission drops sharply outside the October–May season, producing weekly FluSurv-NET rates near zero during summer months. Recent model runs and virologic data reinforce that no significant uptick is expected before the next season begins in Week 40. Traders price the >0.1 outcome at just 43.5% implied probability, reflecting these established seasonal dynamics and the absence of any anomalous early signals in official monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$319Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Summer timing drives the strong market consensus for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000 in Week 31 (early August 2026).** CDC FluView surveillance through Week 30 ending August 1 shows minimal national activity, with clinical lab positivity at or below 0.6% and most states reporting low or no circulation. Historical patterns confirm influenza transmission drops sharply outside the October–May season, producing weekly FluSurv-NET rates near zero during summer months. Recent model runs and virologic data reinforce that no significant uptick is expected before the next season begins in Week 40. Traders price the >0.1 outcome at just 43.5% implied probability, reflecting these established seasonal dynamics and the absence of any anomalous early signals in official monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$319Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Summer timing drives the strong market consensus for a flu hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000 in Week 31 (early August 2026).** CDC FluView surveillance through Week 30 ending August 1 shows minimal national activity, with clinical lab positivity at or below 0.6% and most states reporting low or no circulation. Historical patterns confirm influenza transmission drops sharply outside the October–May season, producing weekly FluSurv-NET rates near zero during summer months. Recent model runs and virologic data reinforce that no significant uptick is expected before the next season begins in Week 40. Traders price the >0.1 outcome at just 43.5% implied probability, reflecting these established seasonal dynamics and the absence of any anomalous early signals in official monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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