A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Septembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Deuxième plus chaud 49%
4e ou plus bas 47%
Le plus chaud 47%
3e plus chaud 47%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
47%
Deuxième plus chaud
49%
3e plus chaud
47%
4e ou plus bas
47%
Deuxième plus chaud 49%
4e ou plus bas 47%
Le plus chaud 47%
3e plus chaud 47%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
$0 Vol.
47%
Deuxième plus chaud
$0 Vol.
49%
3e plus chaud
$0 Vol.
47%
4e ou plus bas
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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