Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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