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Économie·Missions

August Unemployment Rate

icon for August Unemployment Rate
Économie·Missions

August Unemployment Rate

sept. 4

sept. 4

4.1% 35%

4.2% 27%

4.0% 19%

4.3% 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

4.1% 35%

4.2% 27%

4.0% 19%

4.3% 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

≤3.8%

$90 Vol.

2%

3.9%

$92 Vol.

2%

4.0%

$429 Vol.

19%

4.1%

$2,189 Vol.

35%

4.2%

$808 Vol.

27%

4.3%

$369 Vol.

13%

4.4%

$113 Vol.

6%

4.5%

$112 Vol.

4%

≥4.6%

$92 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1% after downward revisions to prior months, anchors trader positioning for the August release. Labor force participation fell to 61.4% amid subdued hiring, while broader U-6 measures held steady, signaling softening demand rather than outright recessionary pressures. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1% and 4.2% because incoming indicators, including initial claims and regional Fed surveys, point to continued moderation but lack decisive momentum for a larger move. The September 4 release will resolve amid ongoing FOMC monitoring of labor-market slack versus persistent inflation readings, with traders weighing base-rate stability near 4% against risks of further participation declines or modest reacceleration in hiring.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$4,273
Date de fin
4 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1% after downward revisions to prior months, anchors trader positioning for the August release. Labor force participation fell to 61.4% amid subdued hiring, while broader U-6 measures held steady, signaling softening demand rather than outright recessionary pressures. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.1% and 4.2% because incoming indicators, including initial claims and regional Fed surveys, point to continued moderation but lack decisive momentum for a larger move. The September 4 release will resolve amid ongoing FOMC monitoring of labor-market slack versus persistent inflation readings, with traders weighing base-rate stability near 4% against risks of further participation declines or modest reacceleration in hiring.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$4,273
Date de fin
4 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Connexes

icon for Le chômage aux États-Unis atteindra-t-il au moins 5,0 % en 2026 ?

Le chômage aux États-Unis atteindra-t-il au moins 5,0 % en 2026 ?

10%
Oui
icon for Les États-Unis ajouteront-ils entre 0 et 50 000 emplois en août ?

Les États-Unis ajouteront-ils entre 0 et 50 000 emplois en août ?

30%
Oui
icon for Les offres d'emploi JOLTS seront-elles comprises entre 7,3M et 7,4M en juillet ?

Les offres d'emploi JOLTS seront-elles comprises entre 7,3M et 7,4M en juillet ?

35%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« August Unemployment Rate » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 4.1% » à 35%, suivi de « 4.2% » à 27%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 35¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« August Unemployment Rate » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 7, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « August Unemployment Rate », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « August Unemployment Rate » est « 4.1% » à 35%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 4.2% » à 27%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « August Unemployment Rate » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.