Jerry Carl leads the AL-01 Republican primary market at 54.5% amid Alabama's ongoing congressional redistricting litigation that rendered the May 19 primary a non-binding "ghost" contest. In unofficial results from that vote, Carl captured 40.3% to Rhett Marques' 31.1%, with the remaining candidates trailing far behind, reflecting Carl's established name recognition from his prior term representing the district. Marques has demonstrated stronger recent fundraising and secured early endorsements, yet his support has not closed the gap in trader assessments. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Barry Moore's Senate bid, features a crowded field of lower-polling challengers whose combined share remains under 10%. Resolution timing depends on final court rulings and any rescheduled primary under revised maps.