**Nigel Farage triggered and won the 2026 Clacton by-election on 13 August after resigning in early July to re-contest the seat amid a paused parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared donations.** He secured re-election with 63.3% of the vote against a field of 34 candidates (including Count Binface), in a contest boycotted by major parties and viewed by many as a protest move. With the seat now filled and no subsequent resignation or vacancy announced, the probability of a second by-election before year-end remains low. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but shows no signs of forcing another vacancy in the remaining months of 2026. Historical patterns indicate MPs rarely initiate repeated by-elections in the same constituency within months absent new developments. Traders price “No” at 70% on this basis, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the short timeline left in the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUne autre élection partielle de Clacton déclenchée en 2026 ?
Une autre élection partielle de Clacton déclenchée en 2026 ?
Oui
30% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
30% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the 2026 Clacton by-election on 13 August after resigning in early July to re-contest the seat amid a paused parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared donations.** He secured re-election with 63.3% of the vote against a field of 34 candidates (including Count Binface), in a contest boycotted by major parties and viewed by many as a protest move. With the seat now filled and no subsequent resignation or vacancy announced, the probability of a second by-election before year-end remains low.
The ongoing inquiry has resumed but shows no signs of forcing another vacancy in the remaining months of 2026. Historical patterns indicate MPs rarely initiate repeated by-elections in the same constituency within months absent new developments. Traders price “No” at 70% on this basis, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the short timeline left in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the 2026 Clacton by-election on 13 August after resigning in early July to re-contest the seat amid a paused parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared donations.** He secured re-election with 63.3% of the vote against a field of 34 candidates (including Count Binface), in a contest boycotted by major parties and viewed by many as a protest move. With the seat now filled and no subsequent resignation or vacancy announced, the probability of a second by-election before year-end remains low.
The ongoing inquiry has resumed but shows no signs of forcing another vacancy in the remaining months of 2026. Historical patterns indicate MPs rarely initiate repeated by-elections in the same constituency within months absent new developments. Traders price “No” at 70% on this basis, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the short timeline left in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage triggered and won the 2026 Clacton by-election on 13 August after resigning in early July to re-contest the seat amid a paused parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared donations.** He secured re-election with 63.3% of the vote against a field of 34 candidates (including Count Binface), in a contest boycotted by major parties and viewed by many as a protest move. With the seat now filled and no subsequent resignation or vacancy announced, the probability of a second by-election before year-end remains low. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but shows no signs of forcing another vacancy in the remaining months of 2026. Historical patterns indicate MPs rarely initiate repeated by-elections in the same constituency within months absent new developments. Traders price “No” at 70% on this basis, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the short timeline left in the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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