Microsoft’s approximately $3.7 trillion market capitalization as of early September 2026 exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March round, reaffirmed by August tender) and Anthropic ($965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, anchoring trader consensus at a 55.5% implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31. Both AI firms have posted rapid revenue growth—OpenAI near $24 billion annualized and Anthropic exceeding $47 billion—with large funding rounds and confidential IPO filings targeting potential 2026 or 2027 listings, yet the compressed timeline limits scope for public-market re-ratings or sustained multiples expansion sufficient to close the gap. Microsoft’s Azure and cloud momentum provide a stable benchmark against which any year-end IPO pops or valuation swings would need to overcome substantial base-rate hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic + OpenAI
45% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
Anthropic + OpenAI
45% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Microsoft’s approximately $3.7 trillion market capitalization as of early September 2026 exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March round, reaffirmed by August tender) and Anthropic ($965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, anchoring trader consensus at a 55.5% implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31. Both AI firms have posted rapid revenue growth—OpenAI near $24 billion annualized and Anthropic exceeding $47 billion—with large funding rounds and confidential IPO filings targeting potential 2026 or 2027 listings, yet the compressed timeline limits scope for public-market re-ratings or sustained multiples expansion sufficient to close the gap. Microsoft’s Azure and cloud momentum provide a stable benchmark against which any year-end IPO pops or valuation swings would need to overcome substantial base-rate hurdles.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Marché ouvert : May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$7,348Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Microsoft’s approximately $3.7 trillion market capitalization as of early September 2026 exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March round, reaffirmed by August tender) and Anthropic ($965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, anchoring trader consensus at a 55.5% implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31. Both AI firms have posted rapid revenue growth—OpenAI near $24 billion annualized and Anthropic exceeding $47 billion—with large funding rounds and confidential IPO filings targeting potential 2026 or 2027 listings, yet the compressed timeline limits scope for public-market re-ratings or sustained multiples expansion sufficient to close the gap. Microsoft’s Azure and cloud momentum provide a stable benchmark against which any year-end IPO pops or valuation swings would need to overcome substantial base-rate hurdles.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$7,348Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s approximately $3.7 trillion market capitalization as of early September 2026 exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March round, reaffirmed by August tender) and Anthropic ($965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, anchoring trader consensus at a 55.5% implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31. Both AI firms have posted rapid revenue growth—OpenAI near $24 billion annualized and Anthropic exceeding $47 billion—with large funding rounds and confidential IPO filings targeting potential 2026 or 2027 listings, yet the compressed timeline limits scope for public-market re-ratings or sustained multiples expansion sufficient to close the gap. Microsoft’s Azure and cloud momentum provide a stable benchmark against which any year-end IPO pops or valuation swings would need to overcome substantial base-rate hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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