OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3, 2026, has driven the current 79% market-implied probability against a formal AGI announcement before 2027. President Greg Brockman described the model as potentially marking the start of the “AGI era” and said he personally believes “we’re there,” while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared AGI had arrived; however, OpenAI issued no official confirmation meeting its charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Sam Altman previously indicated an internal system he would call AGI might exist by year-end 2026 but stressed the company was “not quite yet” at that threshold. Persistent safety concerns, including new board member Paul Christiano’s warnings on alignment risks and recursive self-improvement, plus independent benchmark gaps on provider-neutral tests, have reinforced trader caution. With only months remaining and no confirmed public declaration, the market reflects skepticism that OpenAI will cross the announcement threshold before 2027.