Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Development cycles, component sourcing, and manufacturing timelines remain aligned with the company's annual cadence, with no credible reports of delays or strategic pauses as of mid-2026. Supply chain partners continue preparing for typical volumes, and regulatory filings or certification processes show no unusual hurdles. While extreme disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, major geopolitical events affecting production, or unexpected safety recalls—could theoretically shift the timeline, historical precedent and current operational momentum make such outcomes highly improbable in traders' assessments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$116,457 Vol.
$116,457 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$116,457 Vol.
$116,457 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Development cycles, component sourcing, and manufacturing timelines remain aligned with the company's annual cadence, with no credible reports of delays or strategic pauses as of mid-2026. Supply chain partners continue preparing for typical volumes, and regulatory filings or certification processes show no unusual hurdles. While extreme disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, major geopolitical events affecting production, or unexpected safety recalls—could theoretically shift the timeline, historical precedent and current operational momentum make such outcomes highly improbable in traders' assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$116,457Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Development cycles, component sourcing, and manufacturing timelines remain aligned with the company's annual cadence, with no credible reports of delays or strategic pauses as of mid-2026. Supply chain partners continue preparing for typical volumes, and regulatory filings or certification processes show no unusual hurdles. While extreme disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, major geopolitical events affecting production, or unexpected safety recalls—could theoretically shift the timeline, historical precedent and current operational momentum make such outcomes highly improbable in traders' assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$116,457Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Development cycles, component sourcing, and manufacturing timelines remain aligned with the company's annual cadence, with no credible reports of delays or strategic pauses as of mid-2026. Supply chain partners continue preparing for typical volumes, and regulatory filings or certification processes show no unusual hurdles. While extreme disruptions—such as severe semiconductor shortages, major geopolitical events affecting production, or unexpected safety recalls—could theoretically shift the timeline, historical precedent and current operational momentum make such outcomes highly improbable in traders' assessments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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