Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by recent supplier comments and analyst reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for fall 2026 alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see the split-timeline strategy—premium models arriving first, with base variants potentially shifting to spring 2027—as a refinement rather than a full delay, supported by ongoing development of the A20 chipset and iOS 27 features. While supply-chain disruptions or unexpected regulatory hurdles could still intervene, the volume of credible reporting on hardware production and event timing leaves little room for a complete absence of iPhone 18 models this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$116,501 Vol.
$116,501 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$116,501 Vol.
$116,501 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by recent supplier comments and analyst reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for fall 2026 alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see the split-timeline strategy—premium models arriving first, with base variants potentially shifting to spring 2027—as a refinement rather than a full delay, supported by ongoing development of the A20 chipset and iOS 27 features. While supply-chain disruptions or unexpected regulatory hurdles could still intervene, the volume of credible reporting on hardware production and event timing leaves little room for a complete absence of iPhone 18 models this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$116,501Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by recent supplier comments and analyst reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for fall 2026 alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see the split-timeline strategy—premium models arriving first, with base variants potentially shifting to spring 2027—as a refinement rather than a full delay, supported by ongoing development of the A20 chipset and iOS 27 features. While supply-chain disruptions or unexpected regulatory hurdles could still intervene, the volume of credible reporting on hardware production and event timing leaves little room for a complete absence of iPhone 18 models this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$116,501Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for flagship iPhones, reinforced by recent supplier comments and analyst reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models for fall 2026 alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 96.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see the split-timeline strategy—premium models arriving first, with base variants potentially shifting to spring 2027—as a refinement rather than a full delay, supported by ongoing development of the A20 chipset and iOS 27 features. While supply-chain disruptions or unexpected regulatory hurdles could still intervene, the volume of credible reporting on hardware production and event timing leaves little room for a complete absence of iPhone 18 models this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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