Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Arena.ai Chatbot Arena Overall leaderboard near 1505–1507 Elo as of mid-September 2026, reflecting incremental gains in human-preference voting on reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks. Recent releases including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivered targeted lifts in agentic workflows and instruction following but have not produced the large Elo jumps needed to clear higher thresholds quickly. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and Alibaba’s Qwen series keeps the field tight, while model releases, fine-tunes, and capability demonstrations remain the main swing factors traders monitor ahead of year-end resolution. Historical leaderboard movement suggests steady rather than explosive progress through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$183,566 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
↑ 1520
95%
↑ 1530
40%
↑ 1540
20%
↑ 1550
13%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$183,566 Vol.
↑ 1520
$32,642 Vol.
95%
↑ 1530
$12,943 Vol.
40%
↑ 1540
$5,135 Vol.
20%
↑ 1550
$52,585 Vol.
13%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Vol.
5%
↑ 1650
$9,196 Vol.
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Arena.ai Chatbot Arena Overall leaderboard near 1505–1507 Elo as of mid-September 2026, reflecting incremental gains in human-preference voting on reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks. Recent releases including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivered targeted lifts in agentic workflows and instruction following but have not produced the large Elo jumps needed to clear higher thresholds quickly. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and Alibaba’s Qwen series keeps the field tight, while model releases, fine-tunes, and capability demonstrations remain the main swing factors traders monitor ahead of year-end resolution. Historical leaderboard movement suggests steady rather than explosive progress through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$183,566Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Arena.ai Chatbot Arena Overall leaderboard near 1505–1507 Elo as of mid-September 2026, reflecting incremental gains in human-preference voting on reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks. Recent releases including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivered targeted lifts in agentic workflows and instruction following but have not produced the large Elo jumps needed to clear higher thresholds quickly. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and Alibaba’s Qwen series keeps the field tight, while model releases, fine-tunes, and capability demonstrations remain the main swing factors traders monitor ahead of year-end resolution. Historical leaderboard movement suggests steady rather than explosive progress through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$183,566Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Arena.ai Chatbot Arena Overall leaderboard near 1505–1507 Elo as of mid-September 2026, reflecting incremental gains in human-preference voting on reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks. Recent releases including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivered targeted lifts in agentic workflows and instruction following but have not produced the large Elo jumps needed to clear higher thresholds quickly. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and Alibaba’s Qwen series keeps the field tight, while model releases, fine-tunes, and capability demonstrations remain the main swing factors traders monitor ahead of year-end resolution. Historical leaderboard movement suggests steady rather than explosive progress through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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