Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement on X set the primary driver for current trader sentiment by targeting Grok 4.6 for an August 7 release as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with upgraded supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, followed weeks later by a larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7. This timeline aligns with xAI’s accelerated cadence after Grok 4.5’s mid-July rollout, reflecting internal team reorganization for two-to-three-week update cycles amid competition with frontier systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. Arena.ai’s July 29 confirmation of an August 7 launch and subsequent leaderboard appearance has reinforced near-term expectations, though Musk’s history of AI timeline slippage introduces residual uncertainty around exact availability and feature thresholds that would trigger market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
$18,083 Vol.
7 août 2026
7 août
14%
14 août
84%
$18,083 Vol.
7 août
$9,604 Vol.
14%
14 août
$8,479 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement on X set the primary driver for current trader sentiment by targeting Grok 4.6 for an August 7 release as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with upgraded supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, followed weeks later by a larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7. This timeline aligns with xAI’s accelerated cadence after Grok 4.5’s mid-July rollout, reflecting internal team reorganization for two-to-three-week update cycles amid competition with frontier systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. Arena.ai’s July 29 confirmation of an August 7 launch and subsequent leaderboard appearance has reinforced near-term expectations, though Musk’s history of AI timeline slippage introduces residual uncertainty around exact availability and feature thresholds that would trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$18,083Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement on X set the primary driver for current trader sentiment by targeting Grok 4.6 for an August 7 release as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with upgraded supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, followed weeks later by a larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7. This timeline aligns with xAI’s accelerated cadence after Grok 4.5’s mid-July rollout, reflecting internal team reorganization for two-to-three-week update cycles amid competition with frontier systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. Arena.ai’s July 29 confirmation of an August 7 launch and subsequent leaderboard appearance has reinforced near-term expectations, though Musk’s history of AI timeline slippage introduces residual uncertainty around exact availability and feature thresholds that would trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,083Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement on X set the primary driver for current trader sentiment by targeting Grok 4.6 for an August 7 release as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with upgraded supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, followed weeks later by a larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7. This timeline aligns with xAI’s accelerated cadence after Grok 4.5’s mid-July rollout, reflecting internal team reorganization for two-to-three-week update cycles amid competition with frontier systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. Arena.ai’s July 29 confirmation of an August 7 launch and subsequent leaderboard appearance has reinforced near-term expectations, though Musk’s history of AI timeline slippage introduces residual uncertainty around exact availability and feature thresholds that would trigger market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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