Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration following the July 2026 launch of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—complete with open weights and strong benchmark results against models like Claude Fable 5—has shaped trader views on a K4 successor. The company continues scaling with K2.8 Preview releases in September 2026, enterprise partner programs, and ongoing efforts to secure additional Nvidia Blackwell chips despite U.S. export restrictions and distillation allegations. Competitive dynamics in China’s AI ecosystem, combined with Moonshot’s history of frequent updates and frontier-level performance at lower cost, support market-implied odds favoring a possible public K4 release by year-end, though typical large-model development cycles and compute constraints introduce uncertainty around exact timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$17,814 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre 2026
4%
31 décembre 2026
5%
$17,814 Vol.
31 octobre 2026
$9,489 Vol.
4%
31 décembre 2026
$8,325 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration following the July 2026 launch of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—complete with open weights and strong benchmark results against models like Claude Fable 5—has shaped trader views on a K4 successor. The company continues scaling with K2.8 Preview releases in September 2026, enterprise partner programs, and ongoing efforts to secure additional Nvidia Blackwell chips despite U.S. export restrictions and distillation allegations. Competitive dynamics in China’s AI ecosystem, combined with Moonshot’s history of frequent updates and frontier-level performance at lower cost, support market-implied odds favoring a possible public K4 release by year-end, though typical large-model development cycles and compute constraints introduce uncertainty around exact timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,814Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration following the July 2026 launch of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—complete with open weights and strong benchmark results against models like Claude Fable 5—has shaped trader views on a K4 successor. The company continues scaling with K2.8 Preview releases in September 2026, enterprise partner programs, and ongoing efforts to secure additional Nvidia Blackwell chips despite U.S. export restrictions and distillation allegations. Competitive dynamics in China’s AI ecosystem, combined with Moonshot’s history of frequent updates and frontier-level performance at lower cost, support market-implied odds favoring a possible public K4 release by year-end, though typical large-model development cycles and compute constraints introduce uncertainty around exact timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,814Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration following the July 2026 launch of its 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—complete with open weights and strong benchmark results against models like Claude Fable 5—has shaped trader views on a K4 successor. The company continues scaling with K2.8 Preview releases in September 2026, enterprise partner programs, and ongoing efforts to secure additional Nvidia Blackwell chips despite U.S. export restrictions and distillation allegations. Competitive dynamics in China’s AI ecosystem, combined with Moonshot’s history of frequent updates and frontier-level performance at lower cost, support market-implied odds favoring a possible public K4 release by year-end, though typical large-model development cycles and compute constraints introduce uncertainty around exact timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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