Harry Kane leads trader consensus at 56% implied probability after a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign that delivered 73 goals for Bayern Munich and England, plus Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal titles. His consistent output in the Champions League and strong World Cup run to the semifinals solidified his position once the shortlist dropped in early September. Lamine Yamal sits at 21% on the back of Spain’s World Cup triumph and continued breakout form at Barcelona, though injury absences tempered his club numbers. Kylian Mbappé at 9.6% and Rodri at 4.5% reflect strong individual displays and collective success, while Lionel Messi’s 5.1% accounts for another deep international run that fell short of the title. Recent shortlist announcements and public discussion around goal tallies versus team achievements have kept Kane firmly ahead in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the October ceremony.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHarry Kane 56.0%
Lamine Yamal 21.4%
Kylian Mbappé 9.6%
Lionel Messi 5.1%
$37,800,031 Vol.
$37,800,031 Vol.
Harry Kane
56%
Lamine Yamal
21%
Kylian Mbappé
10%
Lionel Messi
5%
Rodri
5%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Fabian Ruiz
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Harry Kane 56.0%
Lamine Yamal 21.4%
Kylian Mbappé 9.6%
Lionel Messi 5.1%
$37,800,031 Vol.
$37,800,031 Vol.
Harry Kane
56%
Lamine Yamal
21%
Kylian Mbappé
10%
Lionel Messi
5%
Rodri
5%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Fabian Ruiz
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads trader consensus at 56% implied probability after a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign that delivered 73 goals for Bayern Munich and England, plus Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal titles. His consistent output in the Champions League and strong World Cup run to the semifinals solidified his position once the shortlist dropped in early September. Lamine Yamal sits at 21% on the back of Spain’s World Cup triumph and continued breakout form at Barcelona, though injury absences tempered his club numbers. Kylian Mbappé at 9.6% and Rodri at 4.5% reflect strong individual displays and collective success, while Lionel Messi’s 5.1% accounts for another deep international run that fell short of the title. Recent shortlist announcements and public discussion around goal tallies versus team achievements have kept Kane firmly ahead in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the October ceremony.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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