Polymarket traders assign a 62.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's emphasis on data dependency amid cooling core inflation pressures. April's core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year but core-core eased to 2.2%, signaling insufficient momentum for a hike despite yen depreciation beyond 157/USD spurring government interventions. Robust spring wage gains from shunto talks bolster gradual normalization expectations, yet BOJ minutes reveal board divisions, with a 26.1% chance priced for a 25 basis points increase if upside risks materialize. Larger hikes or cuts trail at 7.0% and 6.0%, pending Tankan survey results and final pre-meeting rhetoric.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNo change 63%
25 bps increase 26.1%
50+ bps increase 7%
Decrease rates 6%
$22,232 Vol.
$22,232 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
6%
No change
63%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
7%
No change 63%
25 bps increase 26.1%
50+ bps increase 7%
Decrease rates 6%
$22,232 Vol.
$22,232 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$15,879 Vol.
6%
No change
$6,128 Vol.
63%
25 bps increase
$0 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$225 Vol.
7%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 62.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's emphasis on data dependency amid cooling core inflation pressures. April's core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year but core-core eased to 2.2%, signaling insufficient momentum for a hike despite yen depreciation beyond 157/USD spurring government interventions. Robust spring wage gains from shunto talks bolster gradual normalization expectations, yet BOJ minutes reveal board divisions, with a 26.1% chance priced for a 25 basis points increase if upside risks materialize. Larger hikes or cuts trail at 7.0% and 6.0%, pending Tankan survey results and final pre-meeting rhetoric.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$22,232Date de fin
Jun 16, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 62.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's emphasis on data dependency amid cooling core inflation pressures. April's core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year but core-core eased to 2.2%, signaling insufficient momentum for a hike despite yen depreciation beyond 157/USD spurring government interventions. Robust spring wage gains from shunto talks bolster gradual normalization expectations, yet BOJ minutes reveal board divisions, with a 26.1% chance priced for a 25 basis points increase if upside risks materialize. Larger hikes or cuts trail at 7.0% and 6.0%, pending Tankan survey results and final pre-meeting rhetoric.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$22,232Date de fin
Jun 16, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 62.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's emphasis on data dependency amid cooling core inflation pressures. April's core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year but core-core eased to 2.2%, signaling insufficient momentum for a hike despite yen depreciation beyond 157/USD spurring government interventions. Robust spring wage gains from shunto talks bolster gradual normalization expectations, yet BOJ minutes reveal board divisions, with a 26.1% chance priced for a 25 basis points increase if upside risks materialize. Larger hikes or cuts trail at 7.0% and 6.0%, pending Tankan survey results and final pre-meeting rhetoric.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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