Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 6?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 6?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$45,349 Vol.
$45,349 Vol.
6 mai 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$45,349 Vol.
$45,349 Vol.
6 mai 2026
13°C or below
$856 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,311 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,731 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,928 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,174 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,758 Vol.
No
19°C
$11,078 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,334 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$4,754 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,197 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$5,229 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$45,349Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,349Date de fin
6 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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