Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 16 août ?
86-87°F 48%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 23%
82-83°F 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
48%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 48%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 23%
82-83°F 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
77°F or below
$779 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$101 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$168 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$352 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$717 Vol.
26%
86-87°F
$304 Vol.
48%
88-89°F
$503 Vol.
23%
90-91°F
$991 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$111 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$237 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ET
Volume
$4,527Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,527Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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