Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 25.5% implied probability for a 29°C high in Chongqing on April 18, reflecting tight uncertainty across forecast ensembles from models like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, with peaks varying 27–32°C due to differing cloud cover projections. Recent cloudy conditions and showers through April 15–16, linked to a departing low-pressure trough, suppressed solar insolation and diurnal heating at Jiangbei International Airport station (resolution source), but a subtropical high-pressure ridge is now steering clearer skies and subsidence aloft, enabling potential afternoon peaks above April climatological averages of 23–25°C. Differentiating factors include residual mid-level moisture versus ridge-induced drying, urban heat island effects, and exact timing of maximum insolation; new 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected later today could sharpen odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chongqing on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 18?
29°C 26%
28°C 19%
27°C 15%
30°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
11%
27°C
15%
28°C
19%
29°C
26%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 26%
28°C 19%
27°C 15%
30°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
$467 Vol.
1%
24°C
$185 Vol.
1%
25°C
$95 Vol.
3%
26°C
$108 Vol.
11%
27°C
$296 Vol.
15%
28°C
$21 Vol.
19%
29°C
$12 Vol.
26%
30°C
$0 Vol.
14%
31°C
$112 Vol.
12%
32°C
$146 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$120 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 25.5% implied probability for a 29°C high in Chongqing on April 18, reflecting tight uncertainty across forecast ensembles from models like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, with peaks varying 27–32°C due to differing cloud cover projections. Recent cloudy conditions and showers through April 15–16, linked to a departing low-pressure trough, suppressed solar insolation and diurnal heating at Jiangbei International Airport station (resolution source), but a subtropical high-pressure ridge is now steering clearer skies and subsidence aloft, enabling potential afternoon peaks above April climatological averages of 23–25°C. Differentiating factors include residual mid-level moisture versus ridge-induced drying, urban heat island effects, and exact timing of maximum insolation; new 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected later today could sharpen odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,564Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 25.5% implied probability for a 29°C high in Chongqing on April 18, reflecting tight uncertainty across forecast ensembles from models like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, with peaks varying 27–32°C due to differing cloud cover projections. Recent cloudy conditions and showers through April 15–16, linked to a departing low-pressure trough, suppressed solar insolation and diurnal heating at Jiangbei International Airport station (resolution source), but a subtropical high-pressure ridge is now steering clearer skies and subsidence aloft, enabling potential afternoon peaks above April climatological averages of 23–25°C. Differentiating factors include residual mid-level moisture versus ridge-induced drying, urban heat island effects, and exact timing of maximum insolation; new 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected later today could sharpen odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,564Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 25.5% implied probability for a 29°C high in Chongqing on April 18, reflecting tight uncertainty across forecast ensembles from models like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, with peaks varying 27–32°C due to differing cloud cover projections. Recent cloudy conditions and showers through April 15–16, linked to a departing low-pressure trough, suppressed solar insolation and diurnal heating at Jiangbei International Airport station (resolution source), but a subtropical high-pressure ridge is now steering clearer skies and subsidence aloft, enabling potential afternoon peaks above April climatological averages of 23–25°C. Differentiating factors include residual mid-level moisture versus ridge-induced drying, urban heat island effects, and exact timing of maximum insolation; new 12Z model runs and CMA updates expected later today could sharpen odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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