Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$37,968 Vol.
$37,968 Vol.
18 avr. 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$37,968 Vol.
$37,968 Vol.
18 avr. 2026
28°C or below
$8,462 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,678 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,972 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$3,711 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,118 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,437 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,796 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,299 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,051 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,198 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$1,247 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ET
Volume
$37,968Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,968Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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