Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Houston le 21 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Houston le 21 juillet ?
96-97 °F 100.0%
85°F ou moins <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$39,592 Vol.
$39,592 Vol.
21 juil. 2026
85°F ou moins
Non
86-87°F
Non
88-89°F
Non
90-91°F
Non
92-93 °F
Non
94-95°F
Non
96-97 °F
Oui
98-99°F
Non
100-101°F
Non
102-103°F
Non
104°F ou plus
Non
96-97 °F 100.0%
85°F ou moins <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$39,592 Vol.
$39,592 Vol.
21 juil. 2026
85°F ou moins
$305 Vol.
Non
86-87°F
$305 Vol.
Non
88-89°F
$869 Vol.
Non
90-91°F
$2,533 Vol.
Non
92-93 °F
$4,038 Vol.
Non
94-95°F
$4,518 Vol.
Non
96-97 °F
$10,836 Vol.
Oui
98-99°F
$5,609 Vol.
Non
100-101°F
$3,794 Vol.
Non
102-103°F
$4,043 Vol.
Non
104°F ou plus
$2,740 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ET
Volume
$39,592Date de fin
21 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,592Date de fin
21 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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