Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 19 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 19 juillet ?
28°C 100.0%
23°C ou moins <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Vol.
$27,578 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
23°C ou moins
Non
24°C
Non
25°C
Non
26°C
Non
27°C
Non
28°C
Oui
29°C
Non
30°C
Non
31°C
Non
32°C
Non
33°C ou plus
Non
28°C 100.0%
23°C ou moins <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Vol.
$27,578 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
23°C ou moins
$380 Vol.
Non
24°C
$743 Vol.
Non
25°C
$1,725 Vol.
Non
26°C
$1,674 Vol.
Non
27°C
$2,648 Vol.
Non
28°C
$7,300 Vol.
Oui
29°C
$3,987 Vol.
Non
30°C
$1,749 Vol.
Non
31°C
$5,140 Vol.
Non
32°C
$2,006 Vol.
Non
33°C ou plus
$225 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$27,578Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,578Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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