Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with 32–35°C outcomes tightly clustered at 19–22% implied probabilities, aligning with NiMet's 2026 seasonal prediction of above-average temperatures during the dry-to-rainy season transition. Recent heatwave conditions, including a 35.5°C peak on April 10, have boosted sentiment for upper-end outcomes, but emerging convective activity and potential afternoon thunderstorms—signaled in NiMet bulletins—could cap peaks via increased cloud cover and humidity. Global models like GFS and ECMWF show ensemble spreads around 32–36°C, differentiated by sea breeze strength and urban heat island amplification; watch NiMet's daily outlook and model updates on April 16 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
34°C 19%
35°C 13%
36°C 13%
32°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
7%
32°C
12%
33°C
11%
34°C
15%
35°C
13%
36°C
13%
37°C or higher
10%
34°C 19%
35°C 13%
36°C 13%
32°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
27°C or below
$401 Vol.
1%
28°C
$95 Vol.
1%
29°C
$58 Vol.
9%
30°C
$30 Vol.
3%
31°C
$12 Vol.
7%
32°C
$0 Vol.
12%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$6 Vol.
15%
35°C
$0 Vol.
13%
36°C
$12 Vol.
13%
37°C or higher
$41 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with 32–35°C outcomes tightly clustered at 19–22% implied probabilities, aligning with NiMet's 2026 seasonal prediction of above-average temperatures during the dry-to-rainy season transition. Recent heatwave conditions, including a 35.5°C peak on April 10, have boosted sentiment for upper-end outcomes, but emerging convective activity and potential afternoon thunderstorms—signaled in NiMet bulletins—could cap peaks via increased cloud cover and humidity. Global models like GFS and ECMWF show ensemble spreads around 32–36°C, differentiated by sea breeze strength and urban heat island amplification; watch NiMet's daily outlook and model updates on April 16 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$605Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with 32–35°C outcomes tightly clustered at 19–22% implied probabilities, aligning with NiMet's 2026 seasonal prediction of above-average temperatures during the dry-to-rainy season transition. Recent heatwave conditions, including a 35.5°C peak on April 10, have boosted sentiment for upper-end outcomes, but emerging convective activity and potential afternoon thunderstorms—signaled in NiMet bulletins—could cap peaks via increased cloud cover and humidity. Global models like GFS and ECMWF show ensemble spreads around 32–36°C, differentiated by sea breeze strength and urban heat island amplification; watch NiMet's daily outlook and model updates on April 16 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$605Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with 32–35°C outcomes tightly clustered at 19–22% implied probabilities, aligning with NiMet's 2026 seasonal prediction of above-average temperatures during the dry-to-rainy season transition. Recent heatwave conditions, including a 35.5°C peak on April 10, have boosted sentiment for upper-end outcomes, but emerging convective activity and potential afternoon thunderstorms—signaled in NiMet bulletins—could cap peaks via increased cloud cover and humidity. Global models like GFS and ECMWF show ensemble spreads around 32–36°C, differentiated by sea breeze strength and urban heat island amplification; watch NiMet's daily outlook and model updates on April 16 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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