Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Moscou le 14 juillet ?
Température la plus élevée à Moscou le 14 juillet ?
25°C 100.0%
19°C ou moins <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$45,301 Vol.
$45,301 Vol.
14 juil. 2026
19°C ou moins
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C
Non
24°C
Non
25°C
Oui
26°C
Non
27°C
Non
28°C
Non
29°C ou plus
Non
25°C 100.0%
19°C ou moins <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$45,301 Vol.
$45,301 Vol.
14 juil. 2026
19°C ou moins
$3,121 Vol.
Non
20°C
$4,278 Vol.
Non
21°C
$4,153 Vol.
Non
22°C
$9,014 Vol.
Non
23°C
$6,607 Vol.
Non
24°C
$4,540 Vol.
Non
25°C
$6,074 Vol.
Oui
26°C
$4,079 Vol.
Non
27°C
$1,960 Vol.
Non
28°C
$1,098 Vol.
Non
29°C ou plus
$378 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$45,301Date de fin
14 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,301Date de fin
14 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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