Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow’s July 17 daytime maximum will likely reach 21–22°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light northerly flow. These outcomes command the highest market-implied probabilities because recent observations show a modest cooling trend from mid-July peaks near 25°C, driven by a transient upper-level trough that has moderated surface heating. Key variables separating adjacent bins include slight differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and urban heat-island effects, which can add 0.5–1°C locally. Updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours will refine confidence ahead of the July 17 resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Moscou le 17 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Moscou le 17 juillet ?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$38,800 Vol.
$38,800 Vol.
17 juil. 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$38,800 Vol.
$38,800 Vol.
17 juil. 2026
16°C or below
$381 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,188 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,070 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,135 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,773 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,133 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$4,269 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,976 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,193 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,836 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$845 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow’s July 17 daytime maximum will likely reach 21–22°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light northerly flow. These outcomes command the highest market-implied probabilities because recent observations show a modest cooling trend from mid-July peaks near 25°C, driven by a transient upper-level trough that has moderated surface heating. Key variables separating adjacent bins include slight differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and urban heat-island effects, which can add 0.5–1°C locally. Updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours will refine confidence ahead of the July 17 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$38,800Date de fin
17 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow’s July 17 daytime maximum will likely reach 21–22°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light northerly flow. These outcomes command the highest market-implied probabilities because recent observations show a modest cooling trend from mid-July peaks near 25°C, driven by a transient upper-level trough that has moderated surface heating. Key variables separating adjacent bins include slight differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and urban heat-island effects, which can add 0.5–1°C locally. Updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours will refine confidence ahead of the July 17 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,800Date de fin
17 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow’s July 17 daytime maximum will likely reach 21–22°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light northerly flow. These outcomes command the highest market-implied probabilities because recent observations show a modest cooling trend from mid-July peaks near 25°C, driven by a transient upper-level trough that has moderated surface heating. Key variables separating adjacent bins include slight differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and urban heat-island effects, which can add 0.5–1°C locally. Updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours will refine confidence ahead of the July 17 resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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