Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Moscou le 4 juillet ?
Température la plus élevée à Moscou le 4 juillet ?
22°C 100.0%
17°C ou moins <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$98,057 Vol.
$98,057 Vol.
4 juil. 2026
17°C ou moins
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Oui
23°C
Non
24°C
Non
25°C
Non
26°C
Non
27°C ou plus
Non
22°C 100.0%
17°C ou moins <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$98,057 Vol.
$98,057 Vol.
4 juil. 2026
17°C ou moins
$1,881 Vol.
Non
18°C
$8,175 Vol.
Non
19°C
$12,518 Vol.
Non
20°C
$10,516 Vol.
Non
21°C
$35,622 Vol.
Non
22°C
$9,705 Vol.
Oui
23°C
$5,337 Vol.
Non
24°C
$3,772 Vol.
Non
25°C
$3,287 Vol.
Non
26°C
$3,439 Vol.
Non
27°C ou plus
$3,807 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$98,057Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98,057Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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