**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Qingdao on June 25?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 25?
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$40,861 Vol.
$40,861 Vol.
25 juin 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
Yes
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$40,861 Vol.
$40,861 Vol.
25 juin 2026
20°C or below
$417 Vol.
No
21°C
$493 Vol.
No
22°C
$453 Vol.
No
23°C
$493 Vol.
No
24°C
$504 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,168 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,315 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,043 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,564 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,323 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$30,089 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$40,861Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40,861Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily maximum of 30°C or higher in Qingdao on June 25, reflecting 78% implied probability amid typical late-June warming.** Current ensemble forecasts from global models show expected highs near 26–29°C under mostly cloudy, stable conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly flow, consistent with climatological averages of 24–27°C for the period. However, day-to-day variability, potential model underestimation of daytime heating, and the narrow two-day forecast window allow for upside surprises if subsidence strengthens or insolation increases. Historical extremes occasionally exceed 30°C even without major heatwaves, supporting the market’s pricing of elevated odds while lower-temperature outcomes remain low-probability tails. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date represent the key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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