Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in 48-hour forecasts for Seoul's April 16 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 17–22°C and a slight edge to 18°C from ensemble means accounting for mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration updates show no major shifts in the past 24 hours, amid spring's typical transition from cooler mornings (around 8–10°C) to afternoon peaks influenced by retreating Siberian High and urban heat island effects in Seoul. Historical mid-April averages hover near 18°C, but daily variability from jet stream positioning differentiates outcomes—stronger warm advection favors 20°C+, while increased northerlies support 16–17°C. New model runs expected within 12 hours could refine probabilities ahead of official KMA measurement at Seoul station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on April 16?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 16?
24°C or higher 30.0%
23°C 26%
22°C 17%
21°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
8%
19°C
8%
20°C
10%
21°C
12%
22°C
17%
23°C
26%
24°C or higher
25%
24°C or higher 30.0%
23°C 26%
22°C 17%
21°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
14°C or below
$448 Vol.
1%
15°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$551 Vol.
2%
17°C
$544 Vol.
2%
18°C
$599 Vol.
8%
19°C
$490 Vol.
8%
20°C
$199 Vol.
10%
21°C
$334 Vol.
12%
22°C
$425 Vol.
17%
23°C
$561 Vol.
26%
24°C or higher
$1,155 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in 48-hour forecasts for Seoul's April 16 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 17–22°C and a slight edge to 18°C from ensemble means accounting for mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration updates show no major shifts in the past 24 hours, amid spring's typical transition from cooler mornings (around 8–10°C) to afternoon peaks influenced by retreating Siberian High and urban heat island effects in Seoul. Historical mid-April averages hover near 18°C, but daily variability from jet stream positioning differentiates outcomes—stronger warm advection favors 20°C+, while increased northerlies support 16–17°C. New model runs expected within 12 hours could refine probabilities ahead of official KMA measurement at Seoul station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$4,811Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in 48-hour forecasts for Seoul's April 16 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 17–22°C and a slight edge to 18°C from ensemble means accounting for mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration updates show no major shifts in the past 24 hours, amid spring's typical transition from cooler mornings (around 8–10°C) to afternoon peaks influenced by retreating Siberian High and urban heat island effects in Seoul. Historical mid-April averages hover near 18°C, but daily variability from jet stream positioning differentiates outcomes—stronger warm advection favors 20°C+, while increased northerlies support 16–17°C. New model runs expected within 12 hours could refine probabilities ahead of official KMA measurement at Seoul station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,811Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in 48-hour forecasts for Seoul's April 16 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 17–22°C and a slight edge to 18°C from ensemble means accounting for mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration updates show no major shifts in the past 24 hours, amid spring's typical transition from cooler mornings (around 8–10°C) to afternoon peaks influenced by retreating Siberian High and urban heat island effects in Seoul. Historical mid-April averages hover near 18°C, but daily variability from jet stream positioning differentiates outcomes—stronger warm advection favors 20°C+, while increased northerlies support 16–17°C. New model runs expected within 12 hours could refine probabilities ahead of official KMA measurement at Seoul station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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