Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS now converge on a high temperature of 21–23°C for Seoul on April 18, driving the 76% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher amid a recent spring warming trend—April 16 recorded 27.3°C at official stations, well above the mid-April climatological average of 17–18°C. Southerly winds and high pressure are expected to promote daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though light precipitation risks (20% per KMA) could cap peaks near 20°C, explaining the 14.5% odds there. Traders await final KMA updates by evening, as model runs often refine 24-hour outlooks based on evolving upper-air patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on April 18?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 18?
21°C or higher 76%
20°C 16%
18°C 3.9%
19°C 3.5%
$92,955 Vol.
$92,955 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
76%
21°C or higher 76%
20°C 16%
18°C 3.9%
19°C 3.5%
$92,955 Vol.
$92,955 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
76%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS now converge on a high temperature of 21–23°C for Seoul on April 18, driving the 76% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher amid a recent spring warming trend—April 16 recorded 27.3°C at official stations, well above the mid-April climatological average of 17–18°C. Southerly winds and high pressure are expected to promote daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though light precipitation risks (20% per KMA) could cap peaks near 20°C, explaining the 14.5% odds there. Traders await final KMA updates by evening, as model runs often refine 24-hour outlooks based on evolving upper-air patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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