Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29°C (25.5%), 30°C (25.0%), and 31°C (23.5%), driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 29°C high amid ongoing warm, humid southerly flows. Recent developments include above-average highs near 30°C on April 16-17, fueled by a subtropical ridge and urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city, where April climatology averages 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include model spread—some ensembles like GFS show clearer skies for 30-31°C peaks, while others factor in potential afternoon sea breeze clouds capping at 28-29°C—plus variable humidity and light showers. New observational data and model runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
29°C 26%
30°C 25%
31°C 25%
28°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
20%
29°C
26%
30°C
25%
31°C
25%
32°C
8%
33°C or higher
3%
29°C 26%
30°C 25%
31°C 25%
28°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
$857 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,620 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$650 Vol.
1%
26°C
$112 Vol.
3%
27°C
$405 Vol.
5%
28°C
$165 Vol.
20%
29°C
$51 Vol.
26%
30°C
$65 Vol.
25%
31°C
$496 Vol.
25%
32°C
$240 Vol.
8%
33°C or higher
$330 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29°C (25.5%), 30°C (25.0%), and 31°C (23.5%), driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 29°C high amid ongoing warm, humid southerly flows. Recent developments include above-average highs near 30°C on April 16-17, fueled by a subtropical ridge and urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city, where April climatology averages 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include model spread—some ensembles like GFS show clearer skies for 30-31°C peaks, while others factor in potential afternoon sea breeze clouds capping at 28-29°C—plus variable humidity and light showers. New observational data and model runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$4,991Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29°C (25.5%), 30°C (25.0%), and 31°C (23.5%), driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 29°C high amid ongoing warm, humid southerly flows. Recent developments include above-average highs near 30°C on April 16-17, fueled by a subtropical ridge and urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city, where April climatology averages 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include model spread—some ensembles like GFS show clearer skies for 30-31°C peaks, while others factor in potential afternoon sea breeze clouds capping at 28-29°C—plus variable humidity and light showers. New observational data and model runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,991Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29°C (25.5%), 30°C (25.0%), and 31°C (23.5%), driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 29°C high amid ongoing warm, humid southerly flows. Recent developments include above-average highs near 30°C on April 16-17, fueled by a subtropical ridge and urban heat island effects in this densely built coastal city, where April climatology averages 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include model spread—some ensembles like GFS show clearer skies for 30-31°C peaks, while others factor in potential afternoon sea breeze clouds capping at 28-29°C—plus variable humidity and light showers. New observational data and model runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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