Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities clustering around 17°C (31%), 18°C (26%), and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook projecting maximums of 13-17°C across central Poland amid typical spring conditions of variable cloudiness and occasional showers. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows a spread due to differing predictions on cloud cover, southerly airflow strength, and boundary-layer mixing, which could boost peaks toward 19°C if sunnier breaks prevail or cap them lower under overcast skies. Historical April averages hover near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, but above-normal potential persists; watch IMGW updates and new model runs at 00Z/12Z for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
17°C 33%
18°C 29%
19°C 23%
16°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 avr. 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
33%
18°C
29%
19°C
23%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
3%
17°C 33%
18°C 29%
19°C 23%
16°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 avr. 2026
11°C or below
$382 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$280 Vol.
1%
13°C
$248 Vol.
1%
14°C
$258 Vol.
3%
15°C
$165 Vol.
4%
16°C
$63 Vol.
9%
17°C
$33 Vol.
33%
18°C
$40 Vol.
29%
19°C
$95 Vol.
23%
20°C
$135 Vol.
9%
21°C or higher
$35 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities clustering around 17°C (31%), 18°C (26%), and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook projecting maximums of 13-17°C across central Poland amid typical spring conditions of variable cloudiness and occasional showers. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows a spread due to differing predictions on cloud cover, southerly airflow strength, and boundary-layer mixing, which could boost peaks toward 19°C if sunnier breaks prevail or cap them lower under overcast skies. Historical April averages hover near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, but above-normal potential persists; watch IMGW updates and new model runs at 00Z/12Z for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volume
$1,585Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities clustering around 17°C (31%), 18°C (26%), and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook projecting maximums of 13-17°C across central Poland amid typical spring conditions of variable cloudiness and occasional showers. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows a spread due to differing predictions on cloud cover, southerly airflow strength, and boundary-layer mixing, which could boost peaks toward 19°C if sunnier breaks prevail or cap them lower under overcast skies. Historical April averages hover near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, but above-normal potential persists; watch IMGW updates and new model runs at 00Z/12Z for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,585Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities clustering around 17°C (31%), 18°C (26%), and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) weekly outlook projecting maximums of 13-17°C across central Poland amid typical spring conditions of variable cloudiness and occasional showers. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows a spread due to differing predictions on cloud cover, southerly airflow strength, and boundary-layer mixing, which could boost peaks toward 19°C if sunnier breaks prevail or cap them lower under overcast skies. Historical April averages hover near 13°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport, but above-normal potential persists; watch IMGW updates and new model runs at 00Z/12Z for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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