Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 24?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Vol.
$60,104 Vol.
24 mai 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$60,104 Vol.
$60,104 Vol.
24 mai 2026
10°C or below
$6,298 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,817 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,081 Vol.
No
13°C
$6,705 Vol.
No
14°C
$8,186 Vol.
No
15°C
$11,694 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$9,315 Vol.
No
17°C
$8,574 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,614 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,174 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$646 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$60,104Date de fin
24 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,104Date de fin
24 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Official forecasts from MetService New Zealand and aligned numerical weather models project a daytime maximum of exactly 15°C in Wellington on May 24 under stable southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, matching the late-autumn climatological normal of 14–15°C at Wellington Airport. This consensus across ensemble guidance underpins the market-implied 100% probability for 15°C. Typical May variability, driven by Cook Strait maritime influences, keeps outliers rare. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm-air advection event or significant model bias, though current runs show minimal spread around the 15°C solution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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