Trader sentiment on Polymarket's April nonfarm payrolls market prices subdued job growth, with 50k–100k jobs added holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 0–50k at 33%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid mixed labor indicators. Yesterday's ADP National Employment Report revealed 109,000 private payroll additions—beating lowered expectations but decelerating sharply from March's 178,000 BLS print—while ISM manufacturing (46.4%) and services (48%) employment indices signal contraction. Jobless claims ticked up to 200,000 for the week ending May 2, underscoring softening momentum despite consensus forecasts around 62,000–65,000 headline gains. Key swing factors include prior-month revisions and household survey details ahead of today's 8:30 ET BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many jobs added in April?
How many jobs added in April?
100k – 150k 100.0%
<-50k <1%
-50k – 0 <1%
0 – 50k <1%
$27,888 Vol.
$27,888 Vol.
<-50k
No
-50k – 0
No
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
Yes
150k – 200k
No
200k – 250k
No
250k+
No
100k – 150k 100.0%
<-50k <1%
-50k – 0 <1%
0 – 50k <1%
$27,888 Vol.
$27,888 Vol.
<-50k
No
-50k – 0
No
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
Yes
150k – 200k
No
200k – 250k
No
250k+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader sentiment on Polymarket's April nonfarm payrolls market prices subdued job growth, with 50k–100k jobs added holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 0–50k at 33%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid mixed labor indicators. Yesterday's ADP National Employment Report revealed 109,000 private payroll additions—beating lowered expectations but decelerating sharply from March's 178,000 BLS print—while ISM manufacturing (46.4%) and services (48%) employment indices signal contraction. Jobless claims ticked up to 200,000 for the week ending May 2, underscoring softening momentum despite consensus forecasts around 62,000–65,000 headline gains. Key swing factors include prior-month revisions and household survey details ahead of today's 8:30 ET BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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