President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act during immigration enforcement operations, most recently in January 2026 amid protests in Minnesota following a fatal ICE shooting. No formal invocation has occurred despite earlier considerations tied to border security and urban demonstrations in 2025. Congress has advanced reform legislation narrowing presidential authority and requiring greater oversight, while state officials and courts have pushed back on related deployments. Traders price low near-term odds because invocations remain rare historically, current protests have not escalated to the threshold typically associated with such action, and legislative checks create procedural hurdles through year-end. Upcoming congressional votes on reforms or further enforcement developments could shift sentiment.