Emerging El Niño conditions, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of onset by May-July 2026 and models showing rapid Niño 3.4 warming above +0.9°C, represent the main near-term catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C anomalies for June 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. This builds on 2025’s observed 1.3–1.44°C range amid the long-term anthropogenic trend and lingering ocean heat content, though June values remain sensitive to intra-seasonal variability, exact ENSO amplitude, and model spread in seasonal forecasts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across adjacent bins reflects genuine uncertainty in early-summer global temperature response before full El Niño impacts materialize later in the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
1.25–1.29ºC 39%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
39%
>1.29ºC
37%
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
1.25–1.29ºC 39%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
>1.29ºC
$352 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of onset by May-July 2026 and models showing rapid Niño 3.4 warming above +0.9°C, represent the main near-term catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C anomalies for June 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. This builds on 2025’s observed 1.3–1.44°C range amid the long-term anthropogenic trend and lingering ocean heat content, though June values remain sensitive to intra-seasonal variability, exact ENSO amplitude, and model spread in seasonal forecasts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across adjacent bins reflects genuine uncertainty in early-summer global temperature response before full El Niño impacts materialize later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$528Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of onset by May-July 2026 and models showing rapid Niño 3.4 warming above +0.9°C, represent the main near-term catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C anomalies for June 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. This builds on 2025’s observed 1.3–1.44°C range amid the long-term anthropogenic trend and lingering ocean heat content, though June values remain sensitive to intra-seasonal variability, exact ENSO amplitude, and model spread in seasonal forecasts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across adjacent bins reflects genuine uncertainty in early-summer global temperature response before full El Niño impacts materialize later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$528Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of onset by May-July 2026 and models showing rapid Niño 3.4 warming above +0.9°C, represent the main near-term catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C anomalies for June 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. This builds on 2025’s observed 1.3–1.44°C range amid the long-term anthropogenic trend and lingering ocean heat content, though June values remain sensitive to intra-seasonal variability, exact ENSO amplitude, and model spread in seasonal forecasts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across adjacent bins reflects genuine uncertainty in early-summer global temperature response before full El Niño impacts materialize later in the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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