Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à New York le 23 juillet ?
Température la plus basse à New York le 23 juillet ?
66-67 °F 100.0%
55°F ou moins <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59 °F <1%
$21,447 Vol.
$21,447 Vol.
23 juil. 2026
55°F ou moins
Non
56-57°F
Non
58-59 °F
Non
60-61°F
Non
62-63°F
Non
64-65 °F
Non
66-67 °F
Oui
68-69°F
Non
70-71 °F
Non
72-73°F
Non
74°F ou plus
Non
66-67 °F 100.0%
55°F ou moins <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59 °F <1%
$21,447 Vol.
$21,447 Vol.
23 juil. 2026
55°F ou moins
$482 Vol.
Non
56-57°F
$651 Vol.
Non
58-59 °F
$672 Vol.
Non
60-61°F
$850 Vol.
Non
62-63°F
$1,700 Vol.
Non
64-65 °F
$2,087 Vol.
Non
66-67 °F
$7,018 Vol.
Oui
68-69°F
$2,053 Vol.
Non
70-71 °F
$3,222 Vol.
Non
72-73°F
$1,389 Vol.
Non
74°F ou plus
$1,324 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$21,447Date de fin
23 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,447Date de fin
23 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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