Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Paris le 19 juillet ?
La température la plus basse à Paris le 19 juillet ?
13°C 100.0%
12°C ou moins <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
12°C ou moins
Non
13°C
Oui
14°C
Non
15°C
Non
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C ou plus
Non
13°C 100.0%
12°C ou moins <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
12°C ou moins
$1,303 Vol.
Non
13°C
$2,851 Vol.
Oui
14°C
$4,749 Vol.
Non
15°C
$968 Vol.
Non
16°C
$1,243 Vol.
Non
17°C
$735 Vol.
Non
18°C
$949 Vol.
Non
19°C
$337 Vol.
Non
20°C
$342 Vol.
Non
21°C
$398 Vol.
Non
22°C ou plus
$388 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,261Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,261Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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