**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 2 juillet ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 2 juillet ?
24°C 100.0%
17°C ou moins <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,400 Vol.
$41,400 Vol.
2 juil. 2026
17°C ou moins
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C
Non
24°C
Oui
25°C
Non
26°C
Non
27°C ou plus
Non
24°C 100.0%
17°C ou moins <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,400 Vol.
$41,400 Vol.
2 juil. 2026
17°C ou moins
$2,535 Vol.
Non
18°C
$2,147 Vol.
Non
19°C
$1,477 Vol.
Non
20°C
$1,115 Vol.
Non
21°C
$1,206 Vol.
Non
22°C
$7,601 Vol.
Non
23°C
$2,835 Vol.
Non
24°C
$12,813 Vol.
Oui
25°C
$3,907 Vol.
Non
26°C
$2,373 Vol.
Non
27°C ou plus
$3,392 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$41,400Date de fin
2 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,400Date de fin
2 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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