Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts selecting him to maintain continuity in the hardline clerical establishment amid active regional conflict. He has remained unseen in public since appointment, prompting widespread reporting of possible injury from strikes, deliberate concealment in secure locations, or heightened assassination risks tied to his IRGC ties and succession. These security and health dynamics, alongside ongoing diplomatic and military pressures, form the core drivers of trader assessments on any departure for treatment, refuge, or relocation. Resolution hinges on verifiable confirmation of exit before the specified deadline, with limited public statements or visual records complicating assessments.