Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military operation that removed him from Venezuela. He and his wife face narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered at arraignment and pretrial motions addressing head-of-state immunity and jurisdiction still pending ahead of a possible 2027 trial date. These proceedings, combined with potential life sentences, anchor trader views on release timelines. Broader Venezuelan developments—including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s coordination with Washington on oil exports, amnesty measures, and transition talks—have not altered the separate U.S. criminal case. Scheduled court hearings, any plea developments, or external diplomatic pressures represent the main near-term variables that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,688,795 Vol.
30 janv. 2026
31 décembre
7%
$2,688,795 Vol.
31 décembre
$293,346 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military operation that removed him from Venezuela. He and his wife face narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered at arraignment and pretrial motions addressing head-of-state immunity and jurisdiction still pending ahead of a possible 2027 trial date. These proceedings, combined with potential life sentences, anchor trader views on release timelines. Broader Venezuelan developments—including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s coordination with Washington on oil exports, amnesty measures, and transition talks—have not altered the separate U.S. criminal case. Scheduled court hearings, any plea developments, or external diplomatic pressures represent the main near-term variables that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,688,795Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military operation that removed him from Venezuela. He and his wife face narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered at arraignment and pretrial motions addressing head-of-state immunity and jurisdiction still pending ahead of a possible 2027 trial date. These proceedings, combined with potential life sentences, anchor trader views on release timelines. Broader Venezuelan developments—including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s coordination with Washington on oil exports, amnesty measures, and transition talks—have not altered the separate U.S. criminal case. Scheduled court hearings, any plea developments, or external diplomatic pressures represent the main near-term variables that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,688,795Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces on January 3, 2026, during a military operation that removed him from Venezuela. He and his wife face narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered at arraignment and pretrial motions addressing head-of-state immunity and jurisdiction still pending ahead of a possible 2027 trial date. These proceedings, combined with potential life sentences, anchor trader views on release timelines. Broader Venezuelan developments—including acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s coordination with Washington on oil exports, amnesty measures, and transition talks—have not altered the separate U.S. criminal case. Scheduled court hearings, any plea developments, or external diplomatic pressures represent the main near-term variables that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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