Russia’s tightly managed electoral system and Yabloko’s persistent low single-digit support explain the near-certain trader view that the party will fall short of the 5% proportional-representation threshold in the September 2026 State Duma vote. The liberal opposition grouping posted just 1.21% in 2021, and recent surveys place it around 3% overall despite targeted youth outreach on an anti-war platform. Dozens of its candidates have been disqualified through administrative and legal measures, while state-controlled media and the dominance of United Russia and the parliamentary “systemic” parties further constrain any breakthrough. Registration of its federal list in late July allows participation but does not alter these structural barriers. Only an unforeseen surge in turnout among younger voters or a dramatic late shift in the political climate could realistically move the outcome.