Record-high U.S. diesel prices, reaching $6.51 per gallon in September 2026, stem from global supply constraints including Russia's extended diesel export ban, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Middle East disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened distillate inventories and boosted U.S. exports to fill gaps, prompting farm-state Republicans including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Chuck Grassley to urge the Trump administration to impose a temporary export ban ahead of November midterms to prioritize domestic supply for farmers and truckers. White House officials have stated the administration is not considering such restrictions, citing doubts that they would reduce prices long-term and concerns over impacts on refining runs, global markets, and import-dependent regions. EPA emergency waivers and ongoing agency reviews of fuel supply provide additional context for near-term policy responses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
14%
31 octobre
25%
$346 Vol.
30 septembre
$115 Vol.
14%
31 octobre
$231 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Record-high U.S. diesel prices, reaching $6.51 per gallon in September 2026, stem from global supply constraints including Russia's extended diesel export ban, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Middle East disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened distillate inventories and boosted U.S. exports to fill gaps, prompting farm-state Republicans including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Chuck Grassley to urge the Trump administration to impose a temporary export ban ahead of November midterms to prioritize domestic supply for farmers and truckers. White House officials have stated the administration is not considering such restrictions, citing doubts that they would reduce prices long-term and concerns over impacts on refining runs, global markets, and import-dependent regions. EPA emergency waivers and ongoing agency reviews of fuel supply provide additional context for near-term policy responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$346Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Record-high U.S. diesel prices, reaching $6.51 per gallon in September 2026, stem from global supply constraints including Russia's extended diesel export ban, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Middle East disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened distillate inventories and boosted U.S. exports to fill gaps, prompting farm-state Republicans including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Chuck Grassley to urge the Trump administration to impose a temporary export ban ahead of November midterms to prioritize domestic supply for farmers and truckers. White House officials have stated the administration is not considering such restrictions, citing doubts that they would reduce prices long-term and concerns over impacts on refining runs, global markets, and import-dependent regions. EPA emergency waivers and ongoing agency reviews of fuel supply provide additional context for near-term policy responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$346Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 21, 2026, 6:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Record-high U.S. diesel prices, reaching $6.51 per gallon in September 2026, stem from global supply constraints including Russia's extended diesel export ban, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and Middle East disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened distillate inventories and boosted U.S. exports to fill gaps, prompting farm-state Republicans including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Chuck Grassley to urge the Trump administration to impose a temporary export ban ahead of November midterms to prioritize domestic supply for farmers and truckers. White House officials have stated the administration is not considering such restrictions, citing doubts that they would reduce prices long-term and concerns over impacts on refining runs, global markets, and import-dependent regions. EPA emergency waivers and ongoing agency reviews of fuel supply provide additional context for near-term policy responses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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