The U.S. banking system's robust capital positions and liquidity buffers underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against any bank failure by June 30, as highlighted in the Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report. Only two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—have failed year-to-date, both resolved orderly by the FDIC with minimal spillover. Recent data show stable asset quality, contained deposit flows, and no broad deterioration that would signal acute stress in the narrow window remaining. While an unforeseen credit shock at a vulnerable regional lender could theoretically trigger resolution, the brief timeframe and prevailing conditions make such an event improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS bank failure by June 30?
US bank failure by June 30?
$26,539 Vol.
$26,539 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$26,539 Vol.
$26,539 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system's robust capital positions and liquidity buffers underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against any bank failure by June 30, as highlighted in the Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report. Only two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—have failed year-to-date, both resolved orderly by the FDIC with minimal spillover. Recent data show stable asset quality, contained deposit flows, and no broad deterioration that would signal acute stress in the narrow window remaining. While an unforeseen credit shock at a vulnerable regional lender could theoretically trigger resolution, the brief timeframe and prevailing conditions make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$26,539Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system's robust capital positions and liquidity buffers underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against any bank failure by June 30, as highlighted in the Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report. Only two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—have failed year-to-date, both resolved orderly by the FDIC with minimal spillover. Recent data show stable asset quality, contained deposit flows, and no broad deterioration that would signal acute stress in the narrow window remaining. While an unforeseen credit shock at a vulnerable regional lender could theoretically trigger resolution, the brief timeframe and prevailing conditions make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$26,539Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The U.S. banking system's robust capital positions and liquidity buffers underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against any bank failure by June 30, as highlighted in the Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report. Only two small institutions—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—have failed year-to-date, both resolved orderly by the FDIC with minimal spillover. Recent data show stable asset quality, contained deposit flows, and no broad deterioration that would signal acute stress in the narrow window remaining. While an unforeseen credit shock at a vulnerable regional lender could theoretically trigger resolution, the brief timeframe and prevailing conditions make such an event improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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