President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or decoupled experiments, remains the central driver of trader focus. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining a 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed ongoing internal assessments without ruling out full-yield tests, while New START’s February 2026 expiration removed a key constraint. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and diplomatic signaling around the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty continue to shape near-term probabilities, alongside technical and political hurdles to rapid resumption.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$668,889 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
1%
30 septembre 2026
5%
31 décembre 2026
8%
$668,889 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$41,043 Vol.
1%
30 septembre 2026
$7,044 Vol.
5%
31 décembre 2026
$10,584 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or decoupled experiments, remains the central driver of trader focus. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining a 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed ongoing internal assessments without ruling out full-yield tests, while New START’s February 2026 expiration removed a key constraint. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and diplomatic signaling around the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty continue to shape near-term probabilities, alongside technical and political hurdles to rapid resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$668,889Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or decoupled experiments, remains the central driver of trader focus. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining a 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed ongoing internal assessments without ruling out full-yield tests, while New START’s February 2026 expiration removed a key constraint. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and diplomatic signaling around the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty continue to shape near-term probabilities, alongside technical and political hurdles to rapid resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$668,889Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or decoupled experiments, remains the central driver of trader focus. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining a 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed ongoing internal assessments without ruling out full-yield tests, while New START’s February 2026 expiration removed a key constraint. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and diplomatic signaling around the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty continue to shape near-term probabilities, alongside technical and political hurdles to rapid resumption.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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