With a 96.5% market-implied probability on "No," traders see virtually no realistic path for a Third Vatican Council to convene or launch in 2026. No official announcement, papal bull, or preparatory documents have emerged from the Holy See, and major ecumenical councils historically require years of planning, synodal consultations, and global bishop coordination—none of which are underway. Recent papal priorities have centered on the ongoing synod on synodality and routine consistories rather than the extraordinary step of calling Vatican III. A late-year surprise declaration remains theoretically possible but would contradict established Vatican processes and past precedent, leaving the overwhelming trader consensus firmly in place.